Israel Bluffs Iran

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Bogie’s Bad Timing

Today, February 2, 2012, Israel’s Vice Prime Minister and Minister of Strategic Affairs, Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon was sent out to issue another war warning against Iran. Aviv Kochavi, Head of AMAN (IDF Military Intelligence Corps) issued a supporting statement on the issue. Unluckily for both, something unexpected happened this time…

War, War, War

Aviv Kochavi
Aviv Kochavi

In recent months, Hebrew media has become a boring affair. “War, war, war” headlines blare. “Iran, Iran, Iran,” the subtitles read. Today it was pretty much the same. Aviv Kochavi, Head of AMAN, said at the Hertzliya Conference that about 200,000 missiles are aimed at Israel at any given time and that Iran’s ability to obtain nuclear weapons was solely dependent on the will of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Readers of this website already know that for a while, though the mentioned number changes according to the source. The largest number I had seen until today was 150,000 and it belonged to Iranian sources. It makes little difference which number is more accurate; both are too large for such a tiny country as Israel.

Israel’s Vice Prime Minister was more strategic in his approach. At the final encounter of the same event, Ya’alon said that “the West has the ability to strike, but as long as Iran isn’t convinced that there is a determination to follow through with it, they’ll continue with their manipulations. The Iranians believe that a determination isn’t still there, both in regards to military action and in regards to sanctions. Any facility protected by humans, can be infiltrated by humans. It’s possible to strike all Iran’s facilities, and I say that out of my experience as IDF Chief of Staff.”

Blood Brothers’ Coordinated Attack

Members of the Warring Family choose funny nicknames (“Bibi” for Netanyahu—in Hebrew “bibi” means “my sewage”—“Ghandi” for General Ze’evi—who was especially aggressive—“Napo” for Ehud Barak—who rates as half-Napoleon—and so on). This holds true also for Moshe “Bogie” Ya’alon. During the Freedom Flotilla Massacre, Mr. Bogie replaced Mr. Bibi as Prime Minister, while the latter was making sure he was far from trouble, in Canada. In several interviews he gave, Mr. Bogie defended the IDF behavior during the brutal attack on civilians, but he said Shayetet 13—the IDF Naval Commando Unit—didn’t follow the orders and that there were several wrong actions committed by them, though he didn’t give details. This is an acknowledgement by the person in charge of the action that the IDF did wrong. That was a good beginning for the investigating committee; after this, the Turkel Committee could define the attack as a crime. Unluckily, Netanyahu said beforehand what the committee’s conclusions would be: the IDF was exonerated. That’s why Israel cannot investigate its own violence. Bogie had been chosen to replace Bibi for a good reason. Both had served in “Sayeret Matkal” (The IDF General Headquarters Commando Unit; it was the unit that led Operation Entebbe), and thus are blood brothers; they will trust each other to death.

Benjamin Netanyahu, currently Israel’s Prime Minister was an officer in the Operation Entebbe force. Ehud Barak, currently Israel’s Minister of Defense, was an officer in the force and the direct commander of Benjamin Netanyahu. Matan Vilnai, Minister for Home Front Defense, was second in command of the force. Shaul Mofaz, former Deputy Prime Minister, participated in the force. Tamir Pardo, currently Director of Mossad, was a member of the assault team, apparently in charge of its communications. These are the figures that have become public and hold significant positions in Israel as of 2011. Moshe Ya’alon, current Vice Prime Minister was an officer of “the unit,” as it is referred to in Israel. Between them, they hold all the significant powers in Israel.

It looks as if Sayeret Matkal has performed a silent, South American-style coup d’état in Israel. This means further militarization of Israel and little chance of success in any peace effort. Not only that, these people can work together as a team in ways politicians cannot. If the declarations of war and state violence in the Hebrew press looks coordinated it is because they are. The Path of War is open; the wolves are willing.

However, this time they forgot about coordinating with Uncle Obama.

Israel’s Bluff | Wagging the Dog

Meanwhile, in New York

One week before Ya’alon’s belligerent remarks, the Wall Street Journal reported remarks by US defense officials according to which the Pentagon is not in possession of conventional arms strong enough to destroy all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. As commented upon in the past, Israel gets its GBU-28 Bunker Busterbombs from the USA. Thus, Israel cannot perform better than the USA on such an attack, especially taking into account the IDF limitations.

“You misunderstood Ya’alon,” some readers may be thinking now, stars shining in their eyes at the thought of a brave Zionist agent defeating Iran on his own. “He spoke about a military infiltration and sabotage operation,” would be their next sentence. That’s correct. He did that to intimidate, as a threat. However, the American claim is more credible. Iran had years to dig deep enough facilities; that’s why the bunker busters would be useless. Even if a Zionist agent crosses the main door of such a location, he would not be able to place enough explosives to ensure complete devastation. Yet, Ya’alon arrogantly said this can be performed at once in all Iranian nuclear facilities. The massive quantity—truckloads of equipment—needed to perform such substantial damage hints at the true quality of the event: this is an Israeli bluff.

In Modern Hebrew, there is a slang word for this: Isra-bluff. Sorry, Bogie, bad timing for threatening.