Will Israel Attack Egypt?
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A few months ago a Western weapon backfired. Facebook fueled a revolution in Egypt and Mubarak was dethroned. Barak and Obama shivered; Netanyahu and Cameron shifted their investments’ portfolios towards safer stocks and Libya was attacked. Even the fact Egypt is ruled since then by the army (which supports the peace treaty with Israel) didn’t stop the deterioration of the relations between Egypt and Israel. First came a popular request for a referendum on the Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty, which had been imposed in the past on the Egyptian people. Then, on the last week of April 2011 the post-Mubarak government made two important announcements regarding Rafah Border Crossing. Egyptian Foreign Minister Nabil al-Arabi told Al-Jazeera that the crossing would be opened in order to alleviate the "blockade and suffering of the Palestinian nation." He added that the former Egyptian government decision to seal it off was "shameful." Then, the Israeli Army Radio reported that the Chief of Staff of the Egyptian Armed Forces General Sami Anan warned Israel against interfering with Egypt's plan to open the Rafah Border Crossing with Gaza on a permanent basis, saying it was not a matter of Israel's concern. This wasn’t just a boomerang hitting back its Israeli operator, but a clean nuclear weapon dropped on Israel. In this declaration the new Egypt had recognized Palestinian independence. The next step in the drama took place on August 20, when Egypt recalled its ambassador in Tel Aviv. Days before, five Egyptian policemen had been killed by the IDF. Israeli forces had chased suspected militants across the border and hit the Egyptian policemen. Since then, the deterioration of the relations became faster. On September 10, Netanyahu reacted to the attack on the Israeli embassy in Cairo by Egyptian protesters. The Shin Beth had failed to protect the embassy; Israel flag had been taken and burnt by the protesters. Obviously shocked, Netanyahu appeared on the Israeli television and announced Israel would respect the peace treaty with Egypt, but would recall its ambassador in Cairo. I fact, Netanyahu recognized Israel had been defeated, surrendering to the Egyptian protesters wishes.
As described in Judging Israel, the Middle Eastern reality will change dramatically in a few days. Palestinian independence would probably be overwhelmingly accepted by the UN General Assembly. Israel had openly acknowledged there is a possibility of war with Palestine by saying the Oslo Agreements may be cancelled immediately after the historic event. How does the deterioration of the Israel-Egypt diplomatic relations affect such an event? Surprisingly, these events play into the hands of Israel. Israel’s commitment to the peace treaty has diminished; the ongoing low-level violence between the countries provides plenty of excuses for breaking the treaty without previous notice. The recently published Gaza’s Freedom Flotilla Report and the subsequent Israeli reactions left no place for doubt: Israel wants to keep its siege of Gaza. Unluckily for Netanyahu, Gaza has a border also with Egypt. Moreover, Israel has a serious problem with internal protests right now; Netanyahu is desperate to find an excuse to recruit the reserve army since many protesters serve in it; this may solve the ongoing internal threat at once. War with Turkey, Palestine, Egypt, Lebanon or Hezbollah are all the same: a good excuse to crush the Israeli Spring. Would Netanyahu seize the opportunity created by the deterioration of the bilateral relations with Egypt to send the IDF into Sinai, separating thus Egypt from Gaza? Would Israel attack Egypt following the Palestinian declaration of independence? + +
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