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The writing is on the wall. The same international community that sanctioned the last war against Iraq (based on institutional originated disinformation and bypassing the UN) would need to lead one against Israel. That is, if it wasn’t want to be considered hypocrite. After all, the Goldstone Report – now accepted by the UN Human Rights Commission – defined Israel as a terrorist organization in article 1690 (and others).
Some would ask “how come a Christian is writing about a war?” Sometimes the task of a Christian is to point out the truth, to say what will happen if God is not accepted; the personal price he’ll pay for that is of no consequence. So, this article is not a call for war, but a call for Israeli citizens to repent, to understand the wrong they are committing daily, to stop it and to indemnify its victims properly. Otherwise? Probably the war abovementioned would take place.
How would such a war look? That’s the topic of this article. As with my article about “MI5, CAZAB and Israel” I am in danger of falling into certain legal traps that may harm my refugee status; thus I’ll refer to public information where possible and to my military analysis capabilities gained through my training as an IDF officer. In no place I’ll use factual information gained in my service as an officer. Having served in various strategic units can become a drawback later in life. Wherever I cannot expand on facts or the reasoning process, I’ll place an asterisk (*).
The IDF has an image of strength. Reality is different. Those judging weapons by their number commit a serious error; an intentional one as part of the IDF intimidation tactic is: “we have hundreds of American fighters, you can’t win.” Mmm... Let’s see the real picture; what are the IDF weak points:
-. An army too big for its country. A “rush hour” effect during the organization of the army for a war would transform most main roads into a long caravan of useless steel. We have all seen pictures of unmoving Israeli tanks on the Lebanese mountainous roads. Moreover, tanks within Israel are transported on semi-trailers and are thus dead weight.
-. Narrow corridors force the army to move through certain roads. I did write recently about the importance of Ariel in the defense of a second corridor between Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
-. One continuous front. This can be solved with a Vertical Bypass (*), but the last can be blocked.
-. Hostile islands in the form of Palestinian cities demanding a strong policing presence of the IDF.
-. Strategic concentration of forces in a few central points. (*)
-. Limited amounts of weapons; without a massive infusion of American armaments during a total conflict the IDF can fight only a given amount of days. (*)
-. Outdated Equipment. Several of the IDF divisions use obsolete equipment and their capability to move is close to zero. (*)
-. Inflated statistics. Many reserve soldiers wouldn’t arrive if called in an emergency. The IDF is smaller than it looks. (*)
-. Structural weak points. Israeli weapons suffer of intrinsic weak points The Merkava Tank weak points were publicly disclosed in their failures in Gaza. An article I published about Dow Chemical illustrates other points.
-. The Israeli Air Force is portrayed as the strongest arm of the IDF. In 2006 the IDF was for the first time in many years under the command of an air force officer. He didn’t trust the “greens” (Hebrew slang for ground forces) and kept them on hold while he sent the “blues” – the air force – to ruthlessly attack Lebanon. In parallel, he found time to call his broker and sell his entire portfolio in the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange, causing an additional embarrassment to the Israeli administration. The entire operation failed miserably. The Israeli air force is built for single tactical strikes and not for strategic fighting against highly dispersed ground forces. After the first surprise, the air attacks become an annoyance but not an impassable frontier. In any case Israel’s fuel reserves are vulnerable. (*)
-. Cultural weak points. Many Israeli citizens oppose the Zionist regime. They would appear at a conflict point blocking the regime operations in a myriad of ways, even by just walking away.
From here onwards, the plans for such an event seem easier that when looking at propagandistic sources claiming Israel has the Xth strongest army in the whole world (next they’ll claim that’s true for the whole galaxy).
How would an international army approach such an event? Most probably by attacking several points at once. A maritime landing nearby Netanya would dissect the country in two at its narrowest point is an obvious beginning. Two special forces would concentrate on the main general headquarters of the army – concentrating in their isolation rather than their destruction. (*) A few strategic junctions – especially the one in the north which is the IDF weakest point (*) and Glilot, where the Mossad and other units are located – would be locked with the use of a few snipers or other force multipliers (*). Bab el-Wad – the narrowest point on the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway – would also be an obvious target. Other weak points exist (*)
American weapons convoys would be blocked by targeting the Haifa Port – the largest in the country – rather than by attacking the American ships. An international force entering from Jordan into the Jezreel Valley and advancing rapidly to the port may achieve that easily, as well as blocking the Northern Command organization activities (*). Attacking the Northern Command itself is useless (*), but isolating it is rather doable.
Under such dramatic conditions the IDF may change its operational plans (*) and make a painful decision. The Southern Command may be ordered to give up the Negev Desert and concentrate on the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem Highway and in the northern side of the Gaza Strip. This Command may be the first one to collapse (*) offering comfortable access to the international army forces entering from southern Jordan.
Can this plan succeed? This depends on the scenario chosen. If catching Israel by surprise, it’ll collapse in hours. Considering the time it takes recruiting and organizing an international army that is an improbable case. The other is building up the force slowly while Israel spends out its reserves. The Israeli society cannot survive without American grains and fuel. Blocking the ports and building up the ground forces in the surrounding countries may result in fantastic results, maybe even to an unconditional surrender of the terrorist Zionist regime before even one bullet is shot.
And as the Hebrew saying says: “…and better an hour earlier.”
-*-
Roy Tov is a refugee recognized under the 1951 Geneva Convention. Due to a recent attack by Israel, he was left with permanent damage in his throat. Israel attempted also to entrap him in several ways, even by using a prominent American politician. He is seeking resettlement under the 1967 Geneva Protocol or to be gracefully recognized by other country under the 1951 Convention. In any case that must be in a country with no diplomatic relations with Israel.
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