Israel’s Black Sunday
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While I was in the US, there was an ongoing battle between the American Presbyterian Church (which its San Francisco Synod had invited me there with false promises of political asylum) and the American Jews. In 2004, the General Assembly of the Presbyterian Church adopted a policy of "phased, selective divestment" from American corporations operating in Israel due to the barbaric assassination of Rachel Corrie The claim of American Jews on this issue is even more disconcerting if remembering Israel defined Sunday as a working day in clear disregard for its Christian citizens and neighbors. Thus, Tel Aviv’s Stock Exchange plunged on a Sunday; August 7, 2011, to be more precise. Oddly enough the event was not directly related to local events. The ongoing mass protests of citizens demanding social rights didn’t affect yet the markets, though they could do so in the near future. The Arab Spring TASE is a small and cozy stock exchange. Ten companies hold each 1% or more of the stock exchange total value, with two of them holding well over 10%. The last two are advertised as holding only 9.5% due to local regulations; hiding thus the fact a quarter of the market is driven by two companies: Teva Pharmaceutical Industries and Israel Chemicals. Also the sectors present within the top ten companies are quite limited: aerospace and defense, pharmaceutical, chemical, banking, and telecommunication industries. “Chemical” is a euphemism for “nuclear-oriented.” Much of the industrial military output of Israel is driven by these few companies. Teva is the pharmaceutical company mentioned in The Cross of Bethlehem Yesterday’s market collapse was triggered Friday night with Standard & Poor's downgrading of the U.S. credit rating from AAA to AA+. As of 2011, Israel is completely dependent on the American economy and goodwill; even down to the level of getting enough wheat to feed its population. If America is heading for another recession – almost a certainty - then it would be harder and more expensive for Israel to continue receiving cheap loans and gifts from Uncle Sam. That’s no all, Western European economies are in an equally bad shape – with Spain being the probable target of the next euro-bailout – meaning some of Israel’s main markets are shrinking. Israel won’t be rescued from there. Developing countries won’t help. First, they are traditionally unfriendly towards Zionism. Then, the western financial crisis is causing a slowdown there. China depends on exporting consumer goods to the West; Russia and Brazil depend on sales of raw materials and energy to China, India and others. A crisis in the US and Europe and will lead to reduced world trade, at the expense of developing economies. Since May, the leading Brazilian index dropped by 20% due to these fears. Uncle Zion is worried. Right now, TASE is Israel’s snunit. The last is the name of a small bird, the first one announcing the migration of birds between Europe and Africa through the Holy Land. The bird is used in Hebrew as a euphemism for an early announcement of a dramatic event. TASE signals the beginning of a profound crisis that would either reshape Israel into a proper country or bring its disappearance from history. The Israeli public is in distress. Rothschild Boulevard in Tel Aviv – one of the prettiest areas in town – had become a tents city, hosting protesters demanding social justice. Israeli exports to the US – far more important than the TASE indexes – have dropped 9% in May and June; it is difficult to see them recovering in the near future. Then, there is what Israelis already call the Black September. Following the probable declaration of independence by Palestine, an armed conflict would take place. Different announcements by Israel show it is possible Netanyahu would annul the Oslo Agreements and begin a war with Israel’s new neighbors (though that’s clearly not the way American Jews preach, if judging by the Presbyterian Church events mentioned above). The world won’t react directly. NATO has clearly shown being partial to the extent of violating UN resolutions. What we may see – and the plunging of TASE also reflects this fear – is the imposition of economic sanctions against Israel. It was done successfully against South Africa in the past. Racism won’t win. Uncle Zion is worried. + +
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